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Massive Final Weekend Election 2016 Update: Lots of Links
With just two full days to go before most voters head to the polls on November 8, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are on a whirlwind schedule, polls are allegedly tightening, last minute videos are airing, judges are issuing orders on voter intimidation, and early voting predictions are contributing to a mania this country has never before seen in an election.
Here is an update on what is currently going on. Please feel free to civilly vent your thoughts about what you’re seeing and what you believe is happening in the comments.
THE STORY OF US. Don’t miss this ‘final argument’ from Hillary Clinton.
EARLY VOTING. Latino surge seen to benefit Clinton: “Hispanic voters in key states surged to cast their ballots in the final days of early voting this weekend, a demonstration of political power that lifted Hillary Clinton’s presidential hopes and threatened to block off Donald J. Trump’s path to the White House…This long, unpredictable and often downright bizarre election was, in other words, ending along the lines it had been contested all along: with Americans sharply divided along demographic lines between the two candidates. But Democrats continued to hold the upper hand, thanks in part to the changing nature of the electorate in the most crucial states: Florida and a cluster of states in the South and West.”
TIGHTENING POLLS. Or is it the opposite? “Some Democrats believe that the polls may actually be skewed against Clinton, arguing that Trump’s rhetoric is sending Hispanics to the polls in record numbers in states like Nevada, Florida and North Carolina – all of which are must-win states for Trump.”
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT. Here’s their current odds.
NATE SILVER. Doesn’t know what the hell is going on: “In some ways, our fundamental hypothesis about this campaign is that uncertainty is high, with both a narrow Trump win and a more robust Clinton win — in the mid-to-high single digits — remaining entirely plausible outcomes. The polls-plus model, which gives Trump a 36 percent chance, is basically the same one that gave Mitt Romney just a 9 percentchance on the eve of the 2012 election, so it isn’t inherently so cautious. But the still-high number of voters not committed to either Trump or Clinton — about 13 percent of the electorate says it’s undecided or will vote for a third-party candidate, as compared with just 3 percent in the final 2012 polling average — contributes substantially to uncertainty. So does the unusually broad swing-state map, with the outcome in at least a dozen states still in some doubt.”
SEXISM. How much is it hurting Clinton?
ELECTORAL MAP. John King compares Clinton’s position to that of Obama four years ago.
REAL CLEAR POLITICS. Here’s their current electoral map.
FINAL WEEKEND. Where the candidates are spending it: “A Trump campaign aide told NBC News that a Michigan or Pennsylvania victory is the Republican nominee’s best path forward. Trump will likely campaign in left-leaning Michigan on Sunday, and two campaign aides said focusing on that state will give him flexibility to lose New Hampshire and Nevada…Clinton, meanwhile, is leaning on the likes of Katy Perry, who will perform at her rally in Philadelphia, and Bon Jovi, who will take the stage with her running mate, Tim Kaine, in St. Petersburg, Florida. It’s the second day the Democratic nominee has turned to celebrity supporters for an assist: Jay Z and Beyonce performed at a rally Friday in Cleveland.”
LAST MINUTE. Michigan, Virginia: “Hillary Clinton will campaign in Michigan on Monday, one day before the presidential election, as polls show her once-comfortable lead in the state eroding and as Republican Donald Trump eyes it as a potential way to come from behind in the hunt for electoral votes.That announcement from the Clinton campaign came as Trump also rejiggered his itinerary, making plans for last-minute stops in Virginia, where Clinton has led but Republicans are catching up.”
MONDAY. Clinton will hold midnight rally in Raleigh.
CLEVELAND. Beyoncé and Jay-Z come out for Clinton in Ohio. “Less than 100 years ago, women did not have the right to vote. Look how far we’ve come from having no voice to being on the brink of making history, again, by electing the first woman president.”
LANGUAGE. Trump comes for Jay Z. “He used every word in the book,” Trump said. “I won’t even use the initials because I’ll get in trouble, they’ll get me in trouble. He used every word in the book last night.”
FLORIDA. Clinton rally sees downpour in Pembroke Pines: “The last weekend of early voting, which ends at 7 p.m. Sunday, traditionally brings multitudes of Democrats to the polls. Clinton’s appearance was timed to push supporters to cast their ballots, the bad weather could keep some of them home. Clinton’s Saturday was her third Broward County appearance in six days.”
ROAR. Hillary Clinton uses Katy Perry hit in battleground state ad that will air through election day. “The ad will run Saturday through Election Day in 11 states identified as battlegrounds: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
MELANIA. Trump’s wife worked illegally in U.S., it has been confirmed: “Mrs. Trump, who received a green card in March 2001 and became a U.S. citizen in 2006, has always maintained that she arrived in the country legally and never violated the terms of her immigration status. During the presidential campaign, she has cited her story to defend her husband’s hard line on immigration.”
TRUMP AFFAIR. National Enquirer paid $150K for Playboy Playmate’s story of affair with Trump, but never published it: “Karen McDougal, Playboy’s 1998 playmate of the year, claims to have had an affair with Trump from 2006 to 2007, while he was married to his current wife, Melania Trump, according to the report. American Media Inc., which owns The National Enquirer, confirmed the payment, but said it was for a column.”
CLOSING MESSAGE. Trump released a new ad on Friday called ‘Donald Trump’s Argument for America’. Here it is, if you can stomach it:
TRUMP’S WEEKLY ADDRESS. Called ‘Closing the history book on the Clintons’.
VOTER INTIMIDATION
OHIO. A federal judge has issued an order seeking to prevent Trump and his supporters from intimidating voters: “U.S. District Judge James Gwin in Cleveland ruled Friday that anyone who engages in intimidation or harassment inside or near polling places, regardless of political alliance, would face contempt of court charges. Gwin’s decision to grant a temporary restraining order follows a complaint filed by the Ohio Democratic Party against Trump’s campaign and Republican political operative Roger Stone.”
VIRGINIA. Trump supporter totes gun outside of polling place: “Authorities in the nation’s richest county are apparently OK with that. Erika Cotti encountered the man when she went to vote at the county’s registrar’s office, she told The Huffington Post. ‘I had my 9-year-old son with me. I felt intimidated,’ Cotti said. ‘And I had to explain to my 9-year-old why a man with a 357 magnum is standing outside the polling station.’ Cotti said the man offered her a Republican sample ballot, which she declined.”
NEW JERSEY. Democrats lose battle for injunction forbidding voter intimidation: “There’s no evidence the Republican National Committee is engaged in efforts to intimidate voters in violation of a 1982 court order barring such activities, a federal judge ruled in rejecting a request by Democrats for sanctions. U.S. District Judge John Michael Vazquez in Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday denied the DNC request, ruling that the RNC hadn’t violated the order. The RNC has long denied that its ballot-security measures intimidate voters or suppress the vote.”
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